From a Former City of Salem Survey Department Land Specialist Who Tracks Oregon’s Urban Growth Boundaries

If your land sits near a city’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB), you may wonder whether to sell now or wait for an expansion. But UGB expansions take years and are never guaranteed. Being close to the boundary doesn’t mean your land will be included.

Before you decide to wait, check official planning documents to see whether the city has identified your parcel for potential expansion. Don’t rely on proximity alone.

I spent five years in the City of Salem’s survey department before becoming a full-time Oregon land specialist, and I track UGB activity across the counties I work in specifically because this decision comes up constantly, and getting it wrong in either direction costs real money.

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How a UGB expansion actually happens, and why it takes so long

Oregon’s land use system requires cities to periodically review whether they have enough land inside their UGB for projected housing and employment growth, and expanding the boundary involves a formal process — an urbanization study, coordination with the county, and ultimately state-level review for compliance with Oregon’s statewide land use goals. The process can take years or even more than a decade. The city must study the area, expand the UGB, and rezone the land for urban use. Waiting for an expansion is a long-term gamble.

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Why proximity to the boundary doesn’t mean much on its own

Many parcels sit just outside a UGB and never make it into expansion plans. Cities consider growth projections, available buildable land, infrastructure, and political priorities. Proximity alone doesn’t guarantee inclusion. I’ve seen land a quarter mile from a UGB sit untouched for decades while a different direction of growth absorbed land further away, because that’s where the infrastructure and planning priorities pointed.

What to actually check before deciding to wait

Rather than guessing, there are real, checkable facts: has the city formally identified an urbanization study area including your parcel, is your land within an adopted urban reserve designation, what does the city’s most recent buildable lands inventory say about near-term expansion need, and has your specific area come up in any public planning documents or hearings. These are findable through the city or county planning department, and the answer is often far more specific and sobering than general optimism about “growth coming this direction eventually.”

Read more: Can I 1031 Exchange Bare Land I’ve Never Farmed?

The real cost of waiting, beyond just time

If you hold land while waiting for a future UGB expansion, you’ll continue paying property taxes and tying up money you could invest elsewhere. You may also face farm or forest tax deferral issues if your future plans conflict with the rules. Meanwhile, the expansion timeline and outcome remain uncertain. If the expansion takes 15 years, or never comes for your specific parcel, that’s 15 years of carrying costs and lost opportunity for what may turn out to be a bet that didn’t pay off.

What selling now actually gives up

On the other side, selling now locks in today’s value based on the land’s current farm, timber, or rural use — and if your parcel does end up inside a future UGB expansion, the buyer, not you, captures that development value.

Read more: The Oregon 1031 Clawback Provision: What It Actually Means for Your Decision

A more honest way to frame the decision

Rather than treating this as a binary bet, it’s worth asking what you’d actually do differently today if you knew with certainty you’d wait 15 more years for an uncertain outcome, versus knew with certainty an expansion was coming in 3 years. Most owners, once they see the real planning documents and realistic timelines for their specific parcel, find the decision becomes much clearer than it felt as an abstract hope.

Why some owners choose a middle path

For land genuinely within a documented urbanization study area with a realistic near-term timeline, some owners choose to hold while actively marketing the land’s future potential to speculative buyers or developers who are comfortable taking on that specific timeline risk themselves — effectively transferring the “wait and see” decision to a buyer who’s better positioned to absorb it, often at a price that reflects some, but not all, of the speculative upside.

Read more: How Do I Find a Land Specialist in Oregon?

Why I’d rather pull the actual planning documents than guess

When a client asks me this question, my first move is never to offer an opinion based on general impressions of “which way the city seems to be growing.” It’s to actually pull the city or county’s current buildable lands inventory, urban reserve maps, and any published urbanization study materials covering that specific area. More often than owners expect, those documents give a fairly clear, sobering answer one way or the other — which is a far better foundation for a decision this significant than anyone’s general sense of momentum.

Five things to establish before deciding to wait on a UGB expansion

1. Whether your parcel is within a formally adopted urban reserve or active study area, not just generally nearby.
2. The city’s most recent buildable lands inventory and growth projections, which drive whether expansion is actually needed soon.
3. A realistic timeline based on how long similar expansions have taken in your area historically.
4. Your actual carrying costs over that realistic timeline, including taxes and any deferral complications.
5. Whether a buyer willing to take on the speculative timeline exists, as a potential middle path between selling outright and waiting alone.

What I’d actually recommend if the documents come back uncertain

Plenty of parcels fall into a genuine gray zone — not clearly excluded from future growth plans, but not clearly scheduled for inclusion either. For land in that position, I generally recommend getting a dual valuation: what the land is worth today for its current farm, timber, or rural use, and a separate, honest assessment of what speculative premium a buyer comfortable with UGB uncertainty might actually pay. That gives you a real range to weigh, rather than a single number that either ignores the upside entirely or assumes it’s guaranteed.

Read more: Can Farmland Sellers Spread Capital Gains Over 4 Years in Oregon?

Where I track this most closely

Across Marion, Polk, Yamhill, Linn, Benton, and Clackamas counties, I follow UGB planning activity specifically because so many land owners in these areas are sitting on exactly this question, and the right answer depends entirely on your parcel’s actual, documented position in the process — not general proximity or hope.

Frequently asked questions

How do I find out if my land is in a UGB study area?

Your county or city planning department can confirm this directly, and it’s worth asking specifically about any adopted urban reserve designation or active urbanization study, not just general growth plans.

Does being inside an urban reserve guarantee eventual inclusion in the UGB?

No — an urban reserve designation signals land that could be considered for future expansion, but it’s not a guarantee of timing or even eventual inclusion.

Can I keep farming the land while waiting for a potential UGB decision?

Generally yes, and maintaining farm use and any associated deferral status while waiting is a common approach, though it’s worth confirming how a future rezoning might interact with that status.

Is there a way to benefit from UGB upside without waiting personally?

Selling to a buyer who’s specifically positioned to wait out that timeline, at a price reflecting some speculative value, is one way to participate in potential upside without carrying the full waiting period yourself.

What’s the biggest mistake owners make with this decision?

Treating general proximity to a UGB as if it were documented, near-term inclusion — the two are very different things, and confirming which one actually applies to your parcel changes the whole decision.

Let’s find out exactly where your land stands in this process

If you’re weighing whether to sell now or wait on a potential UGB expansion, I’d rather help you get the real, documented answer about your parcel’s actual position before you decide anything based on general hope or proximity alone.

About Al Cronemiller — Oregon Land Specialist, MORE Realty, Salem, Oregon. Started working timber with his father at age 12 — cruising timber, running property lines, building logging roads. His grandfather was Oregon State Forester in the 1930s and helped write Oregon’s reforestation bylaws; Cronemiller Lake near Corvallis is named after him. Al spent five years in the City of Salem survey department, owned a construction and remodeling company for 30 years as a licensed general contractor, and worked as a commercial property buyer for institutional hedge fund clients. He holds Land Specialist and Multi-Family Specialist designations and has spent 20+ years selling Oregon bare land, EFU farmland, timberland, and investment property.

This is Al Cronemiller, your Salem Oregon Bare Land Specialist. I always answer.

503-949-5025 | al@cronemiller.com | HomesForSaleSalemOregon.net

This article is educational and general in nature. It is not legal or planning advice — UGB processes vary by jurisdiction and change over time. Talk with your local planning department or a land use attorney about your specific parcel.